I’m going to try to write a weekly ranking on the cast of Survivor this season. It will feature a BCS style system with three different categories combining to give a number of the person most likely to win the game each week. Those three categories will be: Current Position in the Game, Edit, and Capability – these will be further explained later.
For now a pre-game ranking based in who I think has the best chance of winning.
C’mon there is no way John Rocker wins Survivor, there is absolutely no way.
Upon watching John and Julie’s videos they seem a lot better than I would have imagined, but again, someone who is attached to John Rocker who comes in with a background of being a sun tan booth owner just doesn’t seem like someone who can win Survivor.
This dude feels oblivious to the way people will perceive him. In his interviews he continuously talked over his brother while saying that his brother was the one whose mouth would get him in trouble. Add to it that he is a young male with another young male out there and I think his shot is miniscule.
I don’t think she really understands the game, though out of everyone it is hardest to get a good read on Jon and Jaclyn.
Age and cultural factors will likely keep the firefighter out of the loop. Plus it doesn’t really seem like he could develop a good grip of the game.
He is a fan and is young which gives him an advantage over his father, but Wes feels like a guy who will play his cards too loose and this will cause him to make mistakes.
She seems plenty likable and could find routes in with the young ones, but someone who has been divorced 3 times doesn’t seem like a good bet.
The twins actually seem far more likable than everybody was complaining about prior to the season, having not seen their seasons of the Amazing Race. Having said that I don’t think either is poised to win the game. But if they aren’t targeted for being twins or being semi-famous I see either as being capable of making it to the 8 or 9 spot. They’re athletic and they know how reality tv works, so middle game seems like their best positioning.
I don’t know the difference between them. Though I think Nadiya is on the better tribe.
Could she Ciera her way into a chance of winning? I think so, as long as she can work her way into an alliance no one is going to be gunning for her come merge time.
I am not super high on him, but something about him seems like he at least has the potential to run the entire game.
The more timid of the brothers feels like he could be a solid person to align with. Add to this the fact that his brother seems like someone who could go out early helps Alec’s chances immensely. Though there is part of me that thinks that Alec could go under someone’s wing and just get completely manipulated.
The last 6 are 3 of the pairs that I just like so much more than the others. I think Josh has a much better chance if Reed gets voted out early (same for Reed). He just seems like the more likely of the 2, to get out early.
This is the year of the cop (on reality tv at least, certainly not in real life) and Val seems very likable, smart, and fit. For some reason the way she talked put me off just a little bit and on the island this will likely only be heightened, so we’ll see.
I know I probably shouldn’t be putting the oldest contestant this high up, but really I liked this guy so much. Add to the fact that he recognized the twins and he is a big fan and I think he has a shot as long as he can get past those first few weeks.
The superfan of the two, I think Reed has enough charm, knowledge of Survivor, and athleticism to really work himself into the group and perhaps take himself to the top.
Jeremy is very very likable. He seems like the kind of guy that you just want to be friends with. Add to this that he seems like one of the most prepared contestants out there and is athletic and smart and it is hard not to pick him as a winner. I could see him getting a little over-eager out there, but if he can contain himself, especially for the first few votes, he is a huge threat.
There is a bell that rings in my head every once in a while when watching the pregame Survivor interviews – I will call this the Kim Spradlin effect. I predicted Kim to win her season, because I was drawn to just how solid of a person she seemed to be (Full disclosure: I also had this feeling somewhat about Tasha last year). Kelly gives me those same alarms. She seems to be very mature (28 is at least close to the same age as Kim was), she grew up on a farm but now lives in the city – something that will hopefully help her relate to a diverse crowd, and she seems capable of competing. If she can get in good with a few people on her tribe, she has the ability to adapt to any situation after that. I’m not saying she will have the strategic capability of Kim, but she’s got a shot.