Last week I released my pre-game rankings for Survivor San Juan del Sur, this week my post week-1 rankings done BCS style with each player ranked according to the following three categories. Their points for each ranking (which will vary week to week depending on how many contestants there are, eg. with ten people remaining the person ranked first will get ten points, the person ranked tenth will get one) will be added up in a final tally similar to that of the old NCAA BCS rankings (yes I know that was terrible, but it’s fun here).
The three categories:
Position in the Game: This calculates what their position currently seems to be, are they in the middle of an alliance or are they on the outside?
Capability: This is the most subjective of the three, but is based in who I feel has the best skills as a Survivor player. Some of these people may be in a bad position, but with their skills can find a way out of it.
Edit: Survivor is a highly edited show where footage is selected in order to create episodic and full season storylines. The way a person is edited can help to predict how well they will do in the game. If a player is in a very bad position, but is getting a good edit, it is conceivable they will find a way out of it at some point.
17. Jaclyn (Position: 17th, Capabilities: 16th, Edit: 16th Total: 5 points )
Not only is Jaclyn on the losing end of the alliance, but she is on the weaker end of the tribe. Add to this the fact that she doesn’t know much about the game, and her bf got the heartbreaking edit not about her uterus and there is no reason to think she will win.
16. Drew (Position: 13th, Capabilities: 17th, Edit: 17th Total: 7 points )
Drew will conceivably stick around a few votes just for his strength, but bro if you are making a shelter and look around and see that no one else is helping, this is not a good sign! He also had the cocky, oblivious model edit.
15. Julie (Position: 15th, Capabilities: 14th , Edit: 13th Total: 12 points )
I don’t have a good read on Julie, she had some funny lines about Drew that seemed poignant, but also doesn’t seem to be in any alliance. She seems like someone who will be an easy early target and without the protection of an alliance will be doomed.
14. Wes (Position: 7th, Capabilities: 15th, Edit: 15th Total: 17 points)
Got the negative edit in comparison to his dad and the whole John Rocker situation was capped off by John threatening to vote him out via confessional. His position is solid for now, but I don’t think he’s got a real shot.
13. Val (Position: 16th, Capabilities: 5th, Edit: 12th Total: 21 points)
Val was the outsider and now sits further outside after being the vocal one about starting a girls alliance. Credit to her for rallying from her situation to get into a group, but sitting on the outside doesn’t look good right now. Plus she mishandled the idol clue situation, better to tell Keith who can then work with your husband to get the clue. Instead Keith will eventually learn that it in fact was an idol clue and perhaps distrust both Val and Jeremy.
12. Reed (Position: 14th, Capabilities: 11th, Edit: 7th Total: 22 points)
I think Reed is really solid, but the fact that he was silent for most of the episode and not shown to be in the main alliance making could be worrisome. Or it could not be, really hard to tell.
11. John (Position: 3rd, Capabilities: 13th, Edit: 14th Total: 24 points)
He wasn’t given enough of a redemption edit to take him seriously as a contender, but for now he’s sitting pretty as the strongest guy in the guy’s alliance.
10. Jon (Position: 11th, Capabilities: 12th, Edit: 4th Total: 27 points)
He was given the pull on your heartstrings confessional which has got to serve some further purpose down the line, as well as being shown to be likable. However, he was not shown to be in an alliance, which hurts.
9. Missy (Position: 10th, Capabilities: 8th, Edit: 8th Total: 28 points)
Missy is in the middle of the pack in all categories. She is in the main alliance and I really think her and Baylor’s story is going to be the Laura/Ciera of this season.
8. Kelly (Position: 9th, Capabilities: 7th, Edit: 9th Total: 29 points)
My pick to win wasn’t given a whole lot of screen time, but was shown in conversation with Jeremy and was not shown doing anything dumb, so I’ll take it as a good sign.
7. Alec (Position: 5th, Capabilities: 9th, Edit: 11th Total: 29 points)
A nice enough young athletic guy who voted in the majority alliance certainly has a shot of going far. I think his edit and skills make him out to last further than his brother.
6. Natalie (Position: 6th, Capabilities: 6th, Edit: 10th Total: 30 points )
I don’t know how Natalie ended up this high, but I think she will be helped by Nadiya’s departure. Being in an alliance with Jeremy and strong in challenges also helps.
5. Dale (Position: 12th, Capabilities: 2nd, Edit: 5th Total: 35 points )
Are we being set up for a Dale boot or will his overcoming this episode lead to him being safe for weeks to come? Hard to say, but Dale played hard this episode and really saved himself. He made himself an asset, recognized he was on the outs, and seemed to plant all the right seeds to get Nadiya out.
4. Keith (Position: 8th, Capabilities: 10th, Edit: 1st Total: 35 points)
Keith could have been the old, unimportant figure. He could have been the unaware Southerner. He could have been the guy who went to exile and could not work himself back in with the tribe. But Keith was one of the most prominent figures of the episode. He (successfully) threw shade at his son, made bonds with people, and came across as likable. I see bright things for his future.
3. Baylor (Position: 4th, Capabilities: 3rd, Edit: 6th Total: 41 points)
Like Keith, Baylor could have been seen a lot of different ways, but she came across as strong, confident, and willing to play. I like the fact that she positioned herself as being with the women and tying herself to Josh as well. While we don’t know why he voted for her, I could see Baylor Ciera-ing herself to the guys and becoming a pivotal player later on. After Jaclyn and Val get picked off I could see Dale, Wes, or John becoming the target over her. Plus, the edit seemed to set her up as someone who has had to be strong throughout her life, she’s my underdog for now.
2. Jeremy (Position: 1st, Capabilities: 4th, Edit: 3rd Total: 46 points )
Jeremy put himself in a fantastic position and the episode was all about him. He showed that he is there to play and while I like this, I am not confident whether this is good or not. People who play too hard, too fast (your Martys and Matts) do not tend to win Survivor. Maybe Jeremy will pull a Tony and defy expectations with his fast and loose play, but for now the best he looks to be going for is a spot on the next All-Stars.
1. Josh (Position: 2nd , Capabilities:1st , Edit: 2nd Total: 49 points)
All of my hype about Josh could be quickly negated when it is discovered why he voted for Baylor, but since the editors didn’t really seem to draw attention to it, I will ignore it for now. The swing vote can be a precarious position to be in, especially early, but I think Josh played it well enough and having a partner to be able to decide with helps tremendously. If he can get one of the guys to his side he may be able to take control of the core group. The camera seemed to love him, he was making smart moves (his quote about always saying yes seemed to be a good sign), and for now he seems like the most obvious choice for a winner.